Turkey lira meltdown LIVE: Trump attacks Erdogan as panic sparks global sell-off CONTAGION

August 10, 2018
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This was a weakening further from Thursday’s 5.55.

The decline comes amid Turkey’s rift with the US.

They have been at loggerheads over the detention of US evangelic pastor Andrew Brunson on terrorism charges.

Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak has defended Turkey’s situation in a speech in which he promised to “transform” Turkey’s economy.

He also said monetary and fiscal policies are now under the same leadership, resulting in a more “efficient and powerful” ministry.

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan tried to downplay concerns of the economy and told Turks “not to worry”.

Follow the Express.co.uk blog below for live updates:

6.54pm update: Turkey Could Create A Larger Crisis Than Greece, claims economist

Authour, economist and journalist Daniel Lacalle claims the Turkish lira collapse will create a worse crisis than Greece.

He writes: “Bailing out Turkey will give further control to Erdogan and increase the imbalances of the economy while imposing higher restrictions to freedom.

“Not bailing out Turkey, on the other hand, would cause a much larger crisis than Greece was. Because too many eurozone funds and bank investments have been directed towards Turkey as a way to get access to some growth and inflation. What they got was a risk of capital controls and currency debasement.

“The biggest risk for Europe will be to try to cover this mess with some aid in exchange for refugee and border support. Because what is already a relevant risk, but contained, will likely balloon to unmanageable proportions.”

6.10pm update: Further to Erdogan God comments, the president asks supporters to remember where the country was ’16 years ago’

“There are various campaigns being carried out. Don’t heed them.

“Don’t forget, if they have their dollars, we have our people, our God. We are working hard. Look at what we were 16 years ago and look at us now.”

5.37pm update: Turkey claims Trump’s new tariffs are ILLEGAL

Turkey’s Trade Ministry said the extra tariffs announced by the President are against WTO rules.

5.26pm update: Donald Trump feels like Erdogan ‘CHEATED’ him over US pastor

Evangelical pastor, Andrew Brunson, was jailed for allegedly supporting a group that Ankara blames for an attempted coup in 2016 – the pastor denies the charge.

Aaron Stein, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington, said Trump has “personalised the Brunson issue and feels like Erdogan cheated him.”

Mr Stein said: ”We are in uncharted waters here. No idea how this ends, or where Ankara wants to take this but it’s going to be a wild ride.”

5.00pm update: Market panic as Turkey crisis deepens

The economic chaos has prompted investors to dump eurozone bank shares today on concerns about their exposure to Turkey.

Shares in BBVA were down 5.7 percent late on Friday, UniCredit was off 6.4 percent and BNP dropped 4.4 percent, all exceeding a 4.3 percent drop in the euro zone bank index .

Turkey accounted for 373 million euros of BBVA’s its first half net attributable profit, 14 percent of the group total, suggesting that it may be the most vulnerable to the country’s market turmoil. The bank declined to comment.

UniCredit, whose Turkish unit Yapi Kredi is viewed by Goldman Sachs analysts as the most vulnerable in terms of capital levels, played down its exposure in its recent earnings presentation.

It argued that the country accounted for less than 2 percent of group revenues and a 10 percent fall in the lira would affect its CET1 ratio – capital that must be set aside as a buffer against financial shocks – by only around 2 basis points. It declined to comment on Friday.

However, a report by Credit Suisse said Turkey remained a risk for UniCredit, Italy’s biggest bank by assets, as the depreciation of the lira could further hit its core capital – which came in lower than expected at the end of June.

The Yapi Kredi stake is valued on the bank’s books at $2.5 billion and is currently worth $1.1 billion, Credit Suisse said in a report on Friday.

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The lira stood 5.75 against the dollar on Friday morning (Image: GETTY)

4.23pm update: Erdogan speech ‘uncompromising’ 

Aneeka Gupta at WisdomTree said: “His appearance lacked any form of compromise with international markets and echoed a feeling of defiance and nationalism as he was determined not to fall prey to interest rate lobbies.”

4.21pm update: Erdogan speech does little to allay investor fears

After the speech finished, confetti exploded in the air.

But the markets are not celebrating.

The EuroStoxx Banks index, which tracks the European banking sector, has plummeted 3.7pc to its lowest level since 2016.

4.20pm update: Investors betting on what the US Federal Reserve will do for the rest of 2018

They are not taking well to turmoil in emerging markets today.

The probability implied by fed funds futures of two more rate hikes this year.

4.16pm update: Borsa Istanbul tumbles.

Borsa Istanbul 100 Index Falls 2.3 percent at Close.

This is a Weekly Loss of 0.7 percent.

4.14pm update: Erdogan tells supporters they have ‘God’ rather than dollars

He said: “If they have dollars, we have our people, our righteousness and our God.”

4.11pm update: Turkish lira having one of the biggest one-day falls of any free-floating currency in 20 years.

Reuter’s Jamie McGeever said: “Now down 14%, but was off as much as 20% earlier today. For comparison: Indonesian rupiah -15% on 6 May, 1998, S African rand -15% on 15 Oct, 2008, UK pound -8% on 24 June, 2016.”

4.00pm update: Turkey turmoil hits Wall Street as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 200 points.

It comes amid a widespread selloff in global stocks as the Turkish lira tumbled due to concerns over the country’s economy and deepening rift with the US.

3.55pm update: Erdogan repeats line from earlier speech on foreign-currency savings.

He said: “If there is anyone among you who has gold, dollar, euros under your pillows, you should take it to banks and sell for liras.”

3.50pm update: Erdogan’s son-in-law and Turkey’s finance minister tried to ease fears about the country’s economy

He said: “One of our principles will be ensuring the full independence of monetary policy.”

Investors worry about the president’s unorthodox economic policies. 

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Erdogan appealed to a crowd in the city of Bayburt to exchange dollars and gold for Turkish lira (Image: GETTY)

3.48pm update: Erdogan discusses economy during speech

The president said: “Turkey will grow at a record pace again in 2018 despite the economic warfare” it’s facing.”

3.31pm update: Commentators wondering if Erdogan will say anything in the speech to settle investor’s nerves.

Bloomberg anchor Caroline Hyde said: “Erdogan second speech of the day…will he say anything to steady investor’s nerves? This as the Lira continues to plummet and contagion ramps up in Europe.”

3.25pm update: Erdogan is in political stronghold, Gumushane

The area voted overwhelmingly for Erdogan during June presidential elections.

Erdogan has 77.7 percent support in the area.

It is the second spot in the list of places Erdogan visits to “thank” voters.

3.24pm update: Erdogan makes second speech of the day

He is currently talking about infrastructure.

3.22pm update: Turkey’s banks dangerously reliant on short-term foreign debt

Country risks full-blown crisis unless drastic measures are taken to stabilise lira.

Erdogan has refused to accept austerity measures or call International Monetary Fund to restore credibility.

3.17pm update: Erdogan about to take the stage

The president is about to make another speech on the crisis.

3.10pm update: Still no word from Erdogan

The Turkish president is due to make another speech but appears to be running late.

3.06pm update: Turkish steel hit HARD by first round of Trump tariffs

The higher rates announced by the US President today will add more pressure.

Other big steel producers like Canada and Mexico received exemptions to earlier tariffs.

Turkey did not which meant it was dealt a bigger blow.

The country’s steel exports to the US fell more than half in the first five months of the year.

Turkey is the sixth biggest steel producer in the world.

3.03pm update: European bank stocks with exposure to Turkey PLUMMET

UniCredit fell as much as 6.6 percent when it resumed trading.

The Italian bank said bout Turkey: “The credit-led growth model seems to be running out of steam.”

3.00pm update: Turkey’s BIST 100 Index Falls as Much as 8.8 percent – which is the most in 2 Years

The lira plummeted the most since 2001, causing losses among the world’s major currencies.

2.55pm update: Euro sinks after a report that the European Central Bank (ECB) was growing concerned about the exposure of banks to a dramatic slide in the Turkish lira

The Financial Times reported that the ECB had concerns about banks in Spain, Italy and France and their exposure to Turkey’s woes.

Head of FX strategy at Westpac Banking Corp in New York, Richard Franulovich, said: “You’ve had a fairly sharp move lower in the euro and it’s broken through key technical levels as well.”

The euro dropped below technical support at $1.15 to $1.1421, down 0.91 percent on the day and the lowest since July 2017. Against the yen, the euro slid 1 percent to 126.79 yen, a two-month low.

2.52pm update: Erdogan urged Turks to help defend the country against “economic war” against the country

Erdogan appealed to a crowd in the city of Bayburt to exchange dollars and gold for Turkish lira to prop up the plunging currency.

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Erdoğan tried to downplay concerns of the economy and told Turks “not to worry” (Image: GETTY)

2.50pm update: Erdogan due to make another speech

The speech was scheduled to take place at 4:30pm local time (2:30pm London BST).

Stay posted for when it starts.

2.46pm update: The lira has not surpassed the Argentine peso as the worst performer of 2018

The lira’s meltdown has hit emerging market currency.

Argentina’s peso is down almost 4 percent versus the dollar, the South African rand is dropping 2.4 percent and the Hungarian forint 1.7 percent lower. The Mexican peso and Brazilian real are both down 1.5 percent.

2.45pm update: Erdogan speaks with Putin

The two leaders spoke to discuss economic ties.

2.30pm update: Donald Trump tweets that he has authorised doubling Turkish tariffs

Donald Trump tweeted: “I have just authorised a doubling of Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum with respect to Turkey as their currency, the Turkish Lira, slides rapidly downward against our very strong Dollar! Aluminium will now be 20% and Steel 50%. Our relations with Turkey are not good at this time!”

Shares of Turkish steelmakers Kardemir and Erdemir plunged as much as eight percent and 9.9 percent respectively after Trump’s tweet.

12.12pm update: Euro plunges to lowest level for years

The euro fell to its lowest level since July 2017 and the dollar rallied as Washington piled pressure on Ankara and Moscow. The lira went into free-fall, sinking more than 10 percent to all-time lows.

European stocks looked set to start well in the red, following losses in Asia and U.S. futures.

Spreadbetters indicated London’s FTSE was set to open 4 points lower at 7,738, Frankfurt’s DAX 17 points lower at 12,660 and Paris’ CAC 11 points down at 5,491.

U.S. S&P mini-futures were down 0.4 percent, after modest losses on Wall Street overnight.



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